The holiday season is still months away, but the numbers are showing that consumers are ready to shop.

The National Retail Federation announced today that it expects retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline and restaurants to rise 3.6 percent in November and December to more than $655 billion.

The Federation used an economic model that factors in consumer credit, monthly retail sales and personal income. Officials also say online sales will increase between 7 to 10 percent. The increase comes because people are more confident and have steady jobs.

The National Retail Federation is the world’s largest retail trade association; its members include department stores, specialty, discount and independent retailers to name a few.